Asian stocks stuttered on Wednesday as a drop in oil prices dragged bond yields lower on hopes that the critical Strait of Hormuz could reopen, while investors braced for yet another make-or-break earnings report from AI bellwether Nvidia.
Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman to manage the Strait, as it faces heightened economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump in the nearly six-month conflict that has roiled oil markets and stoked global inflationary worries.
Brent crude futures fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, sliding more than 2% to $86.41 per barrel on the prospect of more supply coming through the strait, which handled a fifth of the world's traded oil before the war.
That helped push bond yields lower, with the yield on U.S. 10-year notes at 4.634% after falling 6.5 basis points on Tuesday.
"While there was no real progress or details of the Iran-Oman deal, as Iran reiterated that Hormuz will remain shut until conditions are met, price action suggested that markets are quickly pricing in optimism around an interim announcement," analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a note.
WAITING FOR NVIDIA
Investors turned cautious ahead of Nvidia's (NVDA.O) second-quarter earnings later in the day, with their focus on whether the massive AI spending boom is sustainable and can turn profits that will satisfy markets.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MISX00000PUS) was up 0.12% in early trading, set for a 2% rise in the month. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.4% while the tech-heavy KOSPI (.KS11) dipped 0.2%.
Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%, while European futures were flat in Asian hours.
"Nvidia is approaching the point where beating expectations is expected, so the headline numbers alone may not determine the market reaction," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.
"The question is less whether Nvidia beats and more how big the beat is and whether guidance is strong enough to keep earnings expectations moving higher," Chanana said.
She pointed out that options data hints at a smaller move after earnings compared to previous profit announcements, suggesting Nvidia’s results are becoming somewhat more predictable.
Analysts expect Nvidia to forecast an 82.8% rise in third-quarter sales to $104.20 billion. Adjusted gross margin for the second and third quarters is expected to remain around 75%.
J.P. Morgan analysts said it was likely that Nvidia's earnings release will be "supportive of the AI trade though perhaps without giving a material near-term boost" to the semiconductor sector.
U.S. INFLATION DATA UP NEXT
The currency markets remained calm with the dollar holding steady as traders awaited the latest U.S. inflation data later in the day, ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium this weekend.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 98.934 but set for a 1% decline for August.
Investors have been grappling with the U.S. Treasury department's renewed efforts to ease pressure on longer-dated bond yields as it expanded its debt buyback program.
"While this will ease overall interest costs at the margin, it does not change the underlying drivers of rising interest payments: the US government’s rising stock of debt and concerns about fiscal dominance/Fed independence," said Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The move has resulted in the pressure shifting to the dollar from the bond market, reviving the debasement trade, in which investors buy assets like gold and bitcoin, betting that government spending and debt will erode the value of currencies.
Spot gold last fetched $4,646.08 per ounce, just shy of the three-month high it touched in the previous session. Bitcoin was 0.6% higher at $78,704.
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